Supervisor

Dr. Muhammad Iqbal

Programme

BSc (Hons) in Computing in IT

Subject

Computer Science

Abstract

This project investigated the use of machine learning techniques to predict short-term Bitcoin price direction using historical market data obtained from Yahoo Finance. Following the CRISP-DM methodology, the dataset was analysed, prepared, and transformed through feature engineering techniques including moving averages, volatility indicators, return measures and price position metrics. Multiple classification algorithms were evaluated, including Bayesian Classification, K-Nearest Neighbour, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine and XGBoost. Several optimisation strategies were also tested, including feature selection, hyperparameter tuning, feature scaling and class weight balancing. Results showed that predicting short-term Bitcoin price movements remains challenging, with most models achieving accuracy values close to 50%. XGBoost produced the most balanced predictions and achieved the best overall performance. The findings suggest that historical price data alone may not provide sufficient predictive power for reliable Bitcoin forecasting and that future improvements may require additional market, sentiment or macroeconomic features.

Date of Award

2026

Full Publication Date

2026

Access Rights

open access

Document Type

Undergraduate Project

Resource Type

bachelor thesis

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